Confounding Expectations, Unemployment Claims Plunge to 391,000

blr-editor | September 29, 2011 | Comments (0)

A dip in first-time unemployment claims are a good economic signal

Countering the trend of gloomy economic forecasts, the number of first-time filers for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell in the week ending September 24 to 391,000, a decrease of 37,000 from the previous week’s spike of 428,000.

This news is welcome news for the White House and surprised economists, who were looking for a number above the critical 400,000 mark. Nevertheless, as good as this number is, it represents just one week, not a trend.

The 4-week moving average also fell to 417,000, an decrease of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 422,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0% for the week ending September 10, unchanged from the prior week’s revised rate.

Continuing claims – which include people filing for the second week of benefits or more during the week ending September 10 was 3,729,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,749,000.

The 4-week moving average was 3,743,000, an increase of 4,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,747,500.

Last week, the Fed said a complete economic recovery was still years away, and only yesterday, durable goods orders fell by 0.1%.